加拿大住房市场需求侧干预可能降低可负担性

As the housing crisis in Canada became harder (and harder) to ignore, governments big and small have started taking more (and more) action. But not all actions are equal, and some may actually have a negative impact on housing affordability. As complicated as the housing crisis may be, it really comes down to the basic law of supply and demand: If demand increases while supply stays flat, prices will increase. This is why, according to a recent analysis article published by the CMHC, demand-side interventions by governments may actually reduce housing affordability in the long-term. “Demand-side interventions, which directly help households secure housing, are often favoured because of their more immediate impact,” said CMHC Chief Economist and SVP of Housing Insights Mathieu Laberge. “The results are easier to see and measure compared to building new homes, which take years to deliver. “ Demand-side interventions are those that enable people to afford housing, such as by increasing household income or reducing housing costs. Recent examples include the Government of British Columbia’s Attainable Housing Initiative and the Government of Canada’s First-Time Homebuyers GST Rebate. Laberge didn’t call out any real-world examples, but said that demand-side interventions can generate immediate new demand for housing that puts renewed upwards pressure on housing prices — for everyone, not just those who benefit from the intervention. To prove this out, Laberge used two model scenarios: a limited scenario where support is provided to 20% of potential homebuyers, and an ambitious scenario where support is provided to 70% of potential homebuyers, with the support being a 4% reduction in monthly mortgage payments. According to their modeling, 17,000 people would attain homeownership in the limited scenario, but the number would decrease over time because the increased demand would raise prices by 0.6%. The economic cost for the government would be between $2.7 billion and $4…