加拿大部分省份房地产市场回暖带动经济增长

Following an unexpectedly frenzied spring housing market, some provinces will be spared from the impending economic slowdown. At least, for now. The "relative strength" of the rebound has led Marc Desormeaux and Hélène Bégin, Principal Economists at Desjardins, to alter their economic forecasts for some provinces and push the start of the downturn to 2024. After the Bank of Canada (BoC) temporarily paused interest rate hikes, most provinces experienced an uptick in sales activity. But in Ontario and British Columbia -- where affordability is already stretched -- the "robustness of gains...has been striking." As such, the economic forecasts for the two housing-oriented provinces have been revised significantly higher, with Ontario and BC expected to see real GDP grow by 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively, in 2023. Meanwhile, the less severe market downturn seen in Quebec over the last several years has been followed by a similarly less pronounced bounce back, leading Desormeaux and Bégin to believe the province will experience more modest real GDP growth of 0.4% this year. Oil-producing regions, like Alberta and Saskatchewan, are still expected to fare the best, with the economists predicting annual real GDP growth of 2.9% and 2.8% for the provinces, respectively, in 2023. All provinces have experienced economic expansion thus far in 2023 due to soaring population growth, but the source of newcomers will have an effect on the province's growth rankings. Ontario and BC have welcomed a record number of non-permanent residents, but if the economy slows, then the number of temporary foreign workers admitted to Canada could fall. In contrast, population growth in Alberta and the Maritimes has been driven not just by non-permanent residents, but by international immigration and interprovincial migration, too. Partly the result of the regions' affordable home prices, the growth is more likely to be sustained. While the boisterous housing market and increased population growth hav…